Hello all, and welcome back to the Afan Lido story. Unfortunately I haven’t had much video-making opportunity over the past week, so you’ll have to settle with just a written update for our second season. Hopefully that should change this week, and I’ll be able to return with some video action. Before we begin with the written update however, I’d like to do a little theory crafting.
When I first began this challenge, it was with an understanding there were certain «stages» that any minor league to Champion’s League quest goes through. I’ve gleaned these from following various other attempts to bring an unknown team to continental glory, and I can already see them playing out here with the Lido. From my observations, they are thus:
Stage 1) Consolidation — As the title suggests, this is the crucial beginning phase of team building. You dump the dead wood, and bring in players you think will help the team out. This phase usually encompass the entirety of the first season (regardless of your final position on the table), and sets the done for the future.
Stage 2) Domestic Domination — Before you can do anything internationally, you have to establish an iron grip on your domestic league. You’ve achieved this stage once you’ve begun winning your league with ease (domestic cups are largely irrelevant at this level), and are putting substantial distance between yourself and the rest of the competition.
Stage 3) Stagnation — This is the point where nearly all of these stories fail. Depending on how bad your league is (doesn’t get much worse than Wales, I’m afraid), you could be in this stage for 15+ seasons. This is where the domestic competitions have become mindless affairs, but you’re still not achieving any meaningful success on the European stage. This phase may include a few false hopes, such as falling into the Europa Knockout stages (by finishing third in your CL group), but the bigger teams still sweep you aside with ease.
Stage 4) The Breakthrough — Usually the shortest stage, and also the most difficult to spot (thanks to the false breakthroughs sometimes experienced in Stagnation). This stage seems to happen quickly, and relatively out of the blue. It doesn’t have to end with winning a European competition, but you suddenly find yourself standing toe-to-toe with some of the big boys (knocking out a club from the «Big 5» is usually a pretty good indicator). From here you either move on to Stage 5, or fall backwards into Stagnation.
Stage 5) European Glory — From what I’ve seen, once you experience the Breakthrough, European Glory tends to come within 2 or 3 seasons (if it doesn’t, you’ve fallen back into Stagnation), if not immediately. This is marked off by the impossible, winning the Europa or Champion’s League. Depending on your goals, you’ve now reached your destination.
So where do Afan Lido currently stand on that long, treacherousness road? I think I’ll just let the league table answer that question:
We were top from game one, and mathematically secured the league with six games to play. Unfortunately this table also shows just how weak the rest of the league is, with none of the other teams in the top half able to establish themselves as contenders. Neath was probably my most challenging foe throughout the year, but even they crumbled towards the end. I was disappointed, if I’m honest, and was hoping for a more harrowing finish.
Regardless, that’s not all the news! For the first time under my management, we found ourselves in the Welsh Cup semi-finals against League 2 side Newport County (who’s allowed to play in the Welsh Cup on account of them being Welsh). We were 4.00 underdogs going into the game, and I knew this would be an excellent test of our progress thus far. Admittedly nervous heading into the game, I honestly wasn’t expecting this result:
I’d be lying if I said we dominated that game, because we most certainly didn’t. Both of Javlon Campbell’s goals were poachers efforts (Shane Williams’ goal on the other hand, was a screamer), and Newport was the more threatening team for most of the match. Were it not for our keeper (Callum Antel) playing the game of his life, we would likely be looking at a very different result. Not great, but promising.
Regardless, a win is a win, and this moved us along to a Welsh Cup final showdown against Airbus UK. Incidentally, we’ve never lost a game to Airbus, so I was fairly confident going into this matchup. My lads didn’t let me down either:
Or rather, I should say my lads didn’t totally blow the game. We walked through with a 2-0 win courtesy of Airbus’ own Craig Tawton. I was not-so-secretly hoping he’d score a hat-trick for us, but alas, it wasn’t to be. I’d like to say I was able to offer a backhanded thank you in the post game press conference, but the game wasn’t smart enough to give me a witty response option. None of that is really important though, because with this win, it meant we did:
The double! And my first ever double in Football Manager to boot. I was (and still am) pretty excited by that result, and I’m hoping it’s something we can build on for the future. Unfortunately it’s not all sunshine and rainbows here in Wales, and not long after the Cup win, I received a rather disheartening piece of news:
Ouch. Our climb is getting ever steeper, and the pressure is on for us to make some noise in the coming Champion’s League. Unfortunately the rest of the Welsh league seems to be getting worse, and I’ve noticed a marked decrease in the quality of players the teams around me are signing. Frustratingly, I need at least one of them to start doing well if I’m to have any prayer of ever winning a European title.
With a continued drop in the rankings, and an ever rising debt, Season 3 is going to be far more crucial than I’d anticipated. We desperately need to secure a win in our first CL qualifying matchup, or we could be staring bankruptcy square in the face come next season’s end. Attendance is still painfully low (averaging around 100 a game), and I’ve still been unable to goad the board into turning us into a fully professional outfit (that’s right, we’re still semi-pro).
For the curious, here is our complete fixture list (minus preseason friendlies) for the year:
Thanks for reading all, and I’ll see you guys next time!
Laxeyman
5 ноября, 2011 at 15:59
Great season Stromson, a fantastic double! It seems like you’ve conquered the National Domination stage, and hopefully you won’t be in the ‘Stagnation’ period for too long, although judging by the fall in the rankings it seems like you’ve got a struggle on your hands to improve the Welsh League…
Stromson
6 ноября, 2011 at 19:21
Yeah, the next few seasons will be very telling. If I’m able to make palpable progress over the next few years, I’ll be fairly content.
Darren Smith
5 ноября, 2011 at 16:18
While its frustrating to see your nation fall behind all you can do is concentrate on what you’re doing as you have no control on anything bar your team for the time being. With that in mind things are going exceptionally well and it would be brill to see you cause an upset next season.
Stromson
6 ноября, 2011 at 19:22
Agreed, just have to take care of the Lido and pray the rest will find a way to keep up.
TheZiggy
5 ноября, 2011 at 16:51
You’re most definitely in stage two, with the rest of the Welsh teams looking rather dismal. Hopefully you can achieve something in the Champions League qualifying, Will any progress there help with the league reputation, as this is something I know nothing about?
Stromson
6 ноября, 2011 at 19:23
Depends on how far I get really, but it’ll take more than a win or two to have any meaningful impact on our league rating. Even if I were to get into the Group Stages (which I won’t), I doubt we’d rise very far on account of the rest of the Welsh teams being awful.
Johnny Karp
5 ноября, 2011 at 20:20
Congratulations mate, a fantastic double! You’re in stage two now and I think that if you’ll somehow manage to reach the Champions League or Europa League group stage then you’ll be making a big step forward with the money that will be coming in. Good luck mate, I know you can do it!
Stromson
6 ноября, 2011 at 19:24
Thanks Johnny, it’ll certainly be a challenge!
Kevin
5 ноября, 2011 at 21:27
Well done Stromson, you’ve surely turned Afan into the best team in Wales and I hope you can get to to Group stages of the Champions League. I wonder if you will get offered the national team managers position at some point?
Stromson
6 ноября, 2011 at 19:25
My rep is still too low to be considered at the moment, but I’m not sure I’d accept it even if offered.
CsAtlantis
6 ноября, 2011 at 02:29
You’ve achieved domestic glory, now time to turn to Europe and pray for a miracle, maybe somehow you can sneak into the Champions League group stages and strike it rich? :P
I am sure 6 million will turn your club into a powerhouse………….how are the club’s finances?
Stromson
6 ноября, 2011 at 19:33
Not great…we’re about 250k in debt, which may not sound like a lot, but is a pretty astronomical sum for a club that only manages about 15k in gate receipts per year.
vaibhavc
6 ноября, 2011 at 09:01
You did amazing! I think it was coming from the beginning part, I think it looked like you did win it. You are now the best team in Wales, even if your league dropped many places. Good luck in the Champions League.
Stromson
7 ноября, 2011 at 16:24
Thanks :)
Ana Garcia
6 ноября, 2011 at 11:01
Well done on the double!
League wise your are too strong so hopefully you can take the next step. I too am curious on your financial state but it seems like things are starting to fall into place.
So good luck! :)
Stromson
7 ноября, 2011 at 16:25
250k or so in debt, which is quite a large chunk of change for this league. :( I’ll post up more financial info in the next update.
George Dobson
6 ноября, 2011 at 17:03
Well done unlucky that your league went down in the rankings I hope you have a good season 3
Stromson
7 ноября, 2011 at 16:25
Thanks George!
Sears
6 ноября, 2011 at 18:22
Congrats on a terrific season pal!
Stromson
7 ноября, 2011 at 19:07
Thanks Sears!
Joelance
6 ноября, 2011 at 20:35
Congrats on your double. You definitely have a lot of work to do mate! Wish you the best in this nigh impossible quest!
Stromson
7 ноября, 2011 at 19:07
Appreciate it Joe, it’s definitely proving to be a challenge!
Calin
7 ноября, 2011 at 06:33
First of all — amazing season! Your success only and performances in Europe will certainly help the other teams start getting better, although it is a really long shot and probably unlikely to happen.
And I speak from my own experience in FM2011 when I managed a team in Romania: after 5 seasons, we reached the final of the Champions League (but lost it) and no improvement — neither in the league’s quality, nor the performances of other Romanian teams happened. Even more, I know a lad that writes a similar story about a Romanian team and he’s been there for over 10 seasons, I guess and again no improvement from the other teams in the league (the teams rarely get out of the groups in Europe). Maybe it’s the Stagnation stage you’re talking about, maybe in FM 2012 things will be slightly different, but one thing is clear: it’s not easy! :)
Stromson
7 ноября, 2011 at 19:09
Definitely not easy, I won’t argue that in the slightest. I remember someone over on FM-Base trying to do a Welsh story last year, and he managed to get to about Season 15 before quitting in frustration. Pretty much everything I’ve seen from this style shows that the only way to ever improve the leagues quality is to win multiple European titles with multiple teams, and even then it won’t be great.
nielsneutron
7 ноября, 2011 at 07:38
You are far ahead Stromson. Both in game time and in progress. I have yet to see any form of domination in the league. It will be interesting if by going slow the other teams might perform better on their own and therefore minimizing the stagnation part. ( Well I can hope). This was my hope when transferring Mark Jones to TNS at least.
Maybe you could try and transfer some of your backup players to other welsh team.
Stromson
7 ноября, 2011 at 19:10
I’ve thought about it, and it might be something I try sometime down the road. Part of the problem will be convincing the other Welsh teams to even buy my players — So far it’s only English and Scottish teams that are head-hunting my squad.
Martin Pickard
7 ноября, 2011 at 10:37
congrats on your second league title…i’m curious to see how you do in next seasons champions league qualifiers now you’ve strengthen your side…COME ON Stromson! :)
jaima
11 ноября, 2011 at 15:02
you’ve done extremely well to get the double in your second season, i am also doing this with newtown, i’ve found that even if you do get to the champions league group stages and get more finances the top notch players that can win european cups still do not want to move, but i will keep trying, good luck!